One month ago, Malaysia Airlines flight MH-17 was shot down in Ukraine in an event described as a game changer for the insurgency. Many pundits felt that “Russia” or “Putin” would have to de-escalate the crisis and back away from supporting the insurgency. A month later we can say that the game changer was clearly nothing of the sort and it isn’t hard to see why.
In the past months the European Union has once again displayed an inability to make decisive decisions or take action in response to a political crisis. Jan Philip Mairhoefer in this article examines how this indecisiveness can be explained and how it affects the European Union and its member states.
Conventional wisdom suggests that economic interdependence between the great powers reduces conflict. Whilst the general argument makes sense, recent Russian actions in Ukraine highlight how genuine economic interdependence is, much like nuclear weapons, hard to apply in a deterrent strategy. Dr. Simon Leitch, Alochonaa’s Editor in Chief for Foreign Policy and International Affairs, argues that, the rise of the economic interdependence between strategic rivals like Russia and NATO, or China and some of its neighbors, will complicate deterrent strategies, perhaps even to the advantage of the aggressor.
In this analysis, Dr. Simon Leitch downplays the risk of Russia’s further extension beyond Crimea.In Leitch’s words: “If I were in Putin’s shoes right now I would be happy with things the way they are. Crimea in the pocket, NATO humiliated and Ukraine politically divided – it’s a good week’s work for the Kremlin.”
In this article Dr. Simon Leitch assesses the role of NATO and economic sanctions in the Ukraine crisis. He concludes that economic interdependence will insulate Russia from serious economic consequences whilst attempts by NATO to interject itself into the situation are misguided and doomed to fail.
Dr Simon Leitch takes a look at the logic behind Russia’s actions in Ukraine and advocates for a different mix of threats and promises towards Russia to diffuse the escalating situation.